And the dividing lines over Johnson have deepened since he was last on the ballot in 2016. Wisconsin is one of four states (including Connecticut, Minnesota and Vermont) where voters head to the polls Tuesday to pick the nominees for the general election in November. In fact, the only current senator with a lower approval rating is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has infamously blocked hundreds of popular pieces of legislation.. Ditch the ads, get free stuff. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. PPP recently conducted a poll for 314 Action in Wisconsin and found that the state unsurprisingly continues to be closely divided politically about a lot of things but not its feelings about Ron Johnson. 1990 FLEER BASEBALL 501-660 YOU PICK SEE SCANS .99 UNLIMITED SHIPPING HIGH GRADE. If the magic of 2016 (for Johnson) was to convert dont knows to favorables, this year it looks like people who didnt have an opinion are being converted into unfavorables, said Franklin. Senator Ron Johnson's . This made him the second-most unpopular senator out of the 100 currently serving, after only McConnell; Kentucky voters disapprove of him by a 60%-33% margin. And he doesn't shy away from progressive social issues: His TikTok account, for instance, features posts of him calling for the Senate to end the filibuster, codify Roe v. Wade into law and pass the Equality Act to enact protections for transgender people. But while Johnson is unpopular, few are ready to declare his chances dead on arrival as he revs up his third Senate campaign in a state Trump lost by just a sliver in 2020. 56% of independent voters in Wisconsin disapproved of Johnsons job performance up 14 percentage points since late 2020. I'm just trying to convey the truth. Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes is seen as the front-runner, but he faces a number of top-tier Democratic rivals, including State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson and Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry. Sen. Ron Johnson is commonly referred to as one of the country's most unpopular U.S. senators. But that isnt likely to be enough in a state that produces such narrow margins of victory. while Evers' approval rating remains above water. Biden's approval rating, right now, is mired at around 42% to 43% on average. A week ago, Republicans led Democrats by 2.6 points (45.4 percent to 42.8 percent). Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. Buy It Now. Previous Morning Consult polling has shown Johnson near the bottom of the pack in terms of base support among Republican senators running for re-election this year. I'm not a polarizing figure at all. The governors race in Rhode Island could be a sleeper, though, considering Gov. Barnes was expected to have a tougher primary battle up until his top Democratic opponents dropped out late last month, clearing his path to the nomination, NBC projected. The new Marquette Law School poll shows a tight race in the Democratic primary for U.S. Price: US $0.99. Among likely voters, Sen. Ron Johnson is supported by 52% and Lt. Gov. Marquette Law School survey shows a decline in Johnson's popularity over the past few years. Have you been living under a rock? Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). When the dates . Need to report an error? In the head-to-head matchups for U.S. According to a, As hate crimes against Asian Americans have, Billionaire Elon Musks quest to buy Twitter isnt yet official, but if he is successful, he said this week he will. GOP Candidate: Ron Johnson (Incumbent) Dem Candidates: Mandela Barnes. Democrats are banking on Johnsons unpopularity to give them an edge in one of the only contests this year where they stand a chance of knocking off a Republican incumbent as they defend a narrow Senate majority. According to a Morning Consult Political Intelligence survey of all 50 states, just 37% of registered Wisconsin voters approve of Johnson, while 51% disapprove. Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, Phil Scott of Vermont and Larry Hogan of Maryland. A few weeks after the 2020 election, the Crystal Ball put out an early look at the 2022 Senate races. At this time last week, 42.2 percent approved and 52.5 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -10.3 points). Johnson, 67, is also the subject of an ethics complaint over a $280,000 gift to his chief of staff, which he argued was intended for the employees cancer treatments, NBC News reported. Her net approval rating in the Morning Consult poll has been on the decline over the past two years, but she still has a solid +13 net approval rating. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Mark Warner of Virginia and Tina Smith of Minnesota are electorally vulnerable. The remaining 12% said they did not know or had no opinion. Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for 1978 Topps Baseball (501-726) Pick from List EX-NM at the best online prices at eBay! . Get The American Independent in your inbox, Former senior investigative reporter at ThinkProgress and former head of money-in-politics reporting at the Center for Public Integrity. and Biden approval rating unchanged. 'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson, Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy. More:'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, More:Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson. More money is expected to flow into the race as the candidates barrel toward the November general election. In the race for governor, Democratic incumbent Tony Evers and Republican construction executive Tim . "I think when using federal tax dollars, you want to spend those in the most efficient way, and if it's more efficient, more effective to spend those in other states, I don't have a real problem with that. All Rights Reserved. And a high number of respondents who dont know which candidate they favor 36% in the primary for senator and 32% in the primary for governor allows lots of room for both races to change. Since 2015-16, Johnson's popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and . But it has also been pronounced among some more politically mixed groups that arent as lopsidedly red or blue. Morning Consult conducted 494,899 surveys with registered U.S. voters from October 1 through December 31, 2019, to determine the Q4 2019 Senator Rankings. RCP Senate Ratings, Map. There are far fewer voters than in the past who are undecided about Johnson, which could make it harder for him to improve his image over the course of this campaign. Well over half (57 percent) of voters in the state . But a lot has changed in the last few months. Libertarian Seth Cordell and independent . One reason may be that voters are more polarized in general. Will they go back to the Republican Party because of Biden, or go to the polls and think, Yeah, I dont like Biden, but Ron Johnsons too crazy for Wisconsin?, he wrote announcing his re-election campaign was a good start in appealing to both the GOP base and the 6 to 7 percent who stand in the middle of the Wisconsin electorate as true swing voters. On the flip side, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); despite his home state of Wisconsin having an R+4 partisan lean, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points. 36% of Wisconsin voters approved of Johnsons job performance and 51% disapproved in the fourth quarter of 2021. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the battleground state, which voted for former President Donald Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020. 2023 www.jsonline.com. That may not look like anything special, but its actually quite impressive because Manchin is a Democrat in one of the reddest states in the nation (R+30). And how effective is what they plan to do to whoever the eventual nominee is?. Because Massachusetts is so blue, thats no big whoop in the Bay State but in reddish Florida, it denotes a talented politician with a lot of cross-party appeal. Yes. Doing this for the Senate, we get the following table of senators with the best and worst statewide brands: Senators net approval ratings (approval ratings minus disapproval ratings) for the first three months of 2022 relative to the FiveThirtyEight partisan leans of their states. In fact, senators from the party out of power (i.e., the party opposed to the sitting president . Johnson, a Republican and staunch ally of Donald Trump, enjoys the approval of 45% of Trump votersthough a considerable 31% of Trump voters . Johnsons ratings were minus 7 last August, minus 6 last October, minus 12 in February of this year and minus 10 in April. Finally, the two governors with the worst PARGs are Democrats Kate Brown of Oregon (-25) and David Ige of Hawaii (-41). How Daniel Kelly worked with the GOP to fuel election denialism. Hitt said Johnsons message in a Wall Street Journal op-ed he wrote announcing his re-election campaign was a good start in appealing to both the GOP base and the 6 to 7 percent who stand in the middle of the Wisconsin electorate as true swing voters. Its not crazy to think he could be vulnerable in 2020. Become a member for $9/month. Over the past year, Johnson has suffered through his longest and deepest period of unpopularity since Marquette began polling about him in early 2013 a stretch of 61 statewide polls. Among independents, 56 percent disapprove of Johnsons job performance up 14 points since the third quarter of 2020, before the presidential election while the share with no opinion fell from 28 to 16 percent during the same period. His approval rating, according to a recent Marquette Law School poll, is at 41% up four points since June and yet, Wisconsin is on the verge of sending him back to Washington for a third term.. But the electorate has hardened around him. Shaheen has a +21 net approval rating, Warner has a +19 net approval rating and Smith has a +18 net approval rating. Ron Johnson is America's second least popular senator after only Mitch (Photo by Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call via AP Images), Biden throws out Trump energy policy that added millions of tons of carbon pollution, Madison Cawthorn caught breaking the law again, Marjorie Taylor Greene pledges bill to criminalize gender-affirming care in CPAC speech, Republicans lawmakers show off their awards from anti-LGBTQ Family Research Council. Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Ronald Harold Johnson (Republican Party) is a member of the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin. Will they go back to the Republican Party because of Biden, or go to the polls and think, Yeah, I dont like Biden, but Ron Johnsons too crazy for Wisconsin?, Andrew Hitt, former chairman of the Republican Party of Wisconsin, called Johnson a master at retail politics whose plain-spoken, calling it as he sees it approach appeals to Wisconsinites when leveraged appropriately. With the help of Morning Consult, which polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators every quarter, weve created a statistic that Im playfully calling Popularity Above Replacement Senator (PARS). (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images), Barnes tops Johnson by 7 points in Wisconsin Senate race: poll, Ron Johnson tries for a rebrand after years of controversy and Democratic attacks, 'Out of touch': Wisconsin's Barnes and Johnson prepare for general election campaign defined by attacks. This raises the question of whether Johnson in 2022 can replicate his 2016 vote in the WOW counties, or whether he needs to make up any erosion there in increasingly red rural Wisconsin. At this point, very few people dont have an impression of him, Wikler said. The WOW counties have been growing less Republican, and the recent decline in Johnsons ratings in this region is striking. One month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 42.2 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.2 percent, for a net approval rating of -10.0 points. The November race for U.S. Senate will match incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson against the winner of the August Democratic primary. The survey released Wednesday found slipping approval ratings for Democratic Gov. Trump is quite unpopular here. Wedding-Focused Event Hall Planned for Vliet Street Near Washington Park, Friday Photos: UWMs New Chemistry Building Topped Off, Trump Recount Attorney Reappointed To Wisconsin Judicial Conduct Committee, Transportation: MCTS Buses Could Again Serve Summerfest, But Issues Remain, Housing Authority Has Waitlist Three Times Larger Than Its Affordable Housing Supply, $10.4 Million in Unclaimed Property matched to Rightful Owners, Two senior pedestrians killed attempting to cross Milwaukee streets, Eyes on Milwaukee: Train Car Bar Being Demolished, Transportation: Airport Will Rip Out Two Runways, Murphys Law: Journal Sentinel Circulation a Disaster, Milwaukee Extends Downtown Parking Meters To 9 P.M., Adds Saturdays, Protasiewicz Says She Would Recuse Herself From Cases Involving Democratic Party, Milwaukee World Festival, Inc. Early polling indicates a tight race. Thats why, today, were unveiling a metric of a senators political standing that takes both partisanship and popularity into account. With Biden similarly struggling with independents, Sykes said the stakes have been raised for Democrats to nominate a candidate in their August primary who is acceptable to voters embarrassed by Johnson.. Bemis, a major plastics manufacturer, had appointed Howard Curler as its CEO in 1978, and during the first several years of PACUR's existence, Bemis was the business' sole client. Voicemail to me on election night 18 yrs. Governor Mandela Barnes, and even tighter in the Republican primary for governor, with businessman Tim Michelsin a near-tie with former Lt. Senator, led by Lt. Meanwhile, Republican U.S. Henning, the Johnson spokeswoman, said whoever the Democratic nominee is will have to run on Joe Bidens abysmal record and that voters should be wary of anyone who supports his agenda, or worse, something even more progressive.. @baseballot, 2022 Election (348 posts) Johnson said it was not his "job is not to micromanage a private company" and that putting the jobs in a different state would actually "benefit Wisconsin, Oshkosh, and Oshkosh workers. 2023, Urban Milwaukee, Inc. All rights reserved. The top 10 Senate seats that are most likely to flip to the other party. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Mandela Barnes is the choice of 46%. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson emerged from Donald Trumps presidency with his approval ratings in Wisconsin underwater and its only gotten worse under Joe Biden, even as voters there have soured on the Democratic president. Johnsons slippage has been minimal among pro-Trump voters and voters who describe themselves as very conservative. It has been very steep among Democrats and liberals. An older poll, conducted last September by Clarity Campaign Labs for Barnes' campaign, showed the Democrat tied with Johnson. Today, the Democrat wins, he said. Stacker has compiled data ranking all of them based on their popularity and approval rating. He is also the most unpopular Republican among the broader electorate who is up for re-election next year. Johnson has come under fire in recent months for his votes to cut taxes for himself and his very rich donors while backing "most of" National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Rick Scott's 11-point "Rescue America" proposal which includes a large tax hike for more than 100 million lower-income and retired Americans and fighting against efforts to make child care more affordable. Lt. Gov. Johnson, who is one of Trumps biggest supporters in the Senate, has come under fire in recent months for controversial remarks, including arguing Social Security and Medicare should be categorized as discretionary spending, spreading misinformation about Covid-19 vaccines potentially causing AIDS, saying he doesnt trust the FBI after it searched Trumps Mar-a-Lago estate last week, and sending text messages to aides revealed at the January 6 hearings indicating he wanted to hand-deliver fake electors to former Vice President Mike Pence during the 2020 election. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501 (c) (4), 501 (c) (5) or 501 (c) (6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of . Both Kelly and Republican State Attorney General Derek Schmidt won their respective nominations with little opposition. Tommy Rife, of Cedar Bluff, Va., is charged with one count of misdemeanor assault and battery, according to Richlands Police Chief Ron Holt. Wisconsin Democrats are aiming to flip Ron Johnson's seat blue in November's midterm race, . (That last figure is based on a four-poll sample of 339 WOW-county voters, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points). But partisanship isnt the only factor in Senate races (yet); a senators popularity can still make a difference. Approval Ratings (130) One is that it illustrates how Johnson has come back from poor ratings before. Barnes and Johnson have attacked each other as being too politically extreme and out of touch. Johnson is widely considered the most vulnerable Republican senator up for re-election this year, but some see a path to victory built on Bidens own unpopularity and traditional midterm dynamics that favor the party outside the White House. After he was elected in 2020 to serve out the remainder of the late John McCain's (R-AZ) term, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) is seeking a full term this year. The question is: What will those suburban swing voters think? According to the survey of about 800 registered voters, Democratic Governor Tony Evers' approval rating slid from 50% in August to 45%. Theres such a striking decline, and its a decline that has been sustained through 2020, 2021 and now into 2022. > Less popular senator: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson > Q4 2019 approval rating: 41.0% > Least popular House member: Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, 1st District The question is whether or not hell focus on the winning message, whether or not people will respond, or whether those negative numbers are so baked in, he said. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Post author: Charles Franklin; Post published: August 17, 2022; Post category: Poll Release . He does so despite woeful approval ratings among Wisconsin . Ron Johnson Dramatically Underperforms in First Finance Report Since Announcing for Reelection - Lt. Gov. But his moderation has endeared him to voters in his home state of West Virginia: He has a +22 net approval rating in the R+36 state, for a chamber-leading PARS of +58. Wednesday, August 17, 2022, 2:25pm. I think Johnson is in a strong position from the standpoint of being the incumbent and not having a primary, Hitt said. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas have seen their approval ratings dip amid an alarming rise of Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations in both states over the past two months, . In 2016, Johnson easily outperformed Donald Trump on the same ballot in these three counties. Those is Tim. The idea behind these stats is that a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Massachusetts isnt the same as a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Florida. Faircloth's loss came in a year in which the President, Democrat Bill Clinton, had an approval rating in the 60s. An approval rating is a percentage determined by polling which indicates the percentage of respondents to an opinion poll who approve of a particular person or program. So, its not a short-term fluctuation, but a strong trend, said pollster Charles Franklin, who provided the data used here. Wisconsin paints a clear example of the collapse in Bidens popularity. Can we marry dogs? Jon Tester (+33 PARS) and Sherrod Brown (+20 PARS), who have managed to win multiple elections despite hailing from red states. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) Indeed, Democrats are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove of Johnsons job performance than Republicans are to solidly back it, at 63 percent to 27 percent. Mandela Barnes, by five points (51% to 46%) in the state's U.S. Senate race. Wisconsin paints a clear example of the collapse in Bidens popularity. The two-term incumbent, backed by former President Donald Trump, is the only Republican senator running for reelection in a state that President Joe Biden won in 2020. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Then again, a senators PARS score isnt everything.
